Don’t ask why I’m reading an NPR article on this cloudy afternoon, when I really ought to be leaving the ‘pooter entirely alone. I’m a public-spirited blogger and do it so you won’t have to.
It’s puzzling that so many Americans are choosing to arm themselves at a time when the FBI tells us violent crime and property crime have been falling dramatically for two decades.
Rare enough that an anti-gunner should even mention the inconveniently plummeting crime rates, but in fairness this particular article isn’t outrageously one-sided. But that paragraph did catch my eye. Let’s turn it around, shall we? A quick cut’n’paste…
“It’s puzzling that the FBI tells us violent crime and property crime have been falling dramatically for two decades at a time when so many Americans are choosing to arm themselves.”
See, that wouldn’t be puzzling at all. That would suggest cause and effect, rather than a contradiction. But in fact most pro-gun writers, being more given to truthfulness since the facts are more squarely on their side, carefully back away from any bald statement of causation. They just mention the facts and waggle their eyebrows suggestively.
Not a puzzle, of course, but also not that simple either way – as we all know. Guns are not the only factor in crime or self defense. Actually, since these folks believe that all gun owners are unbalanced nut cases just looking for someone to shoot… it must puzzle them no end to have the actual numbers of homicides committed with a gun going down, except in the areas where they have the most control.
When the black people figure out why they kill each other twice as often or more as anyone else not a member of ISIS, they’ll get a handle on one other important factor. And, for the life of me, I’ve never solved that puzzle. Except that it has nothing to do with how many guns I own, or how many rounds I have in the magazine…
“That would suggest cause and effect, rather than a contradiction.” Yes Joel, but surely you know that simple correlation in no way implies causality. Check out the graphs here: http://www.fastcodesign.com/3030529/infographic-of-the-day/hilarious-graphs-prove-that-correlation-isnt-causation/5
Nitpick. Correlation often *implies* causation, it simply never *proves* it. Causes and their effects are always perfectly correlated (at least I know of no contradictory examples).
Surely you know…
Surely I do know. I thought it was implicit in what I said. Correlation never proves causation: It also doesn’t ever disprove it, that I know of.